Low-Ownership DFS Strategy for GPPs
When it comes to Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS), particularly in Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournaments, low-ownership plays can be the secret weapon that separates you from the masses. GPP tournaments are high-risk, high-reward contests, where you compete against thousands of other players for large cash prizes. In these settings, a strong DFS strategy focused on finding and capitalizing on low-ownership players can give you the edge needed to achieve that top 1% finish.
This article delves into how low-ownership DFS strategies can maximize your chances of winning GPPs, with actionable tips, examples, and advice on how to effectively apply them in your lineups.
Table of Contents
- What is Low Ownership in DFS?
- Why Low Ownership is Key in GPPs
- How to Identify Low-Ownership Players
- Creating a Balanced Lineup
- The Risks and Rewards of Low Ownership Plays
- Tools to Help You Identify Low-Ownership Gems
- Advanced GPP Strategies
- Case Study: Winning GPP Lineup Example
- Conclusion
What is Low Ownership in DFS?
Low ownership in DFS refers to players who are selected by a smaller percentage of entrants in a given contest. For example, in a GPP tournament with 10,000 entries, if only 3% of entries have a particular player, that player is considered a low-ownership play. Contrarily, if 40% of participants roster a player, that player is labeled “chalk,” meaning highly popular and widely selected.
In GPPs, the allure of low-ownership picks lies in their potential to outperform highly-owned players (chalk) and set your lineup apart. While chalky players are typically strong and consistent options, low-ownership players often carry more variance. However, in a tournament where a small percentage of lineups receive big payouts, embracing this variance can be crucial for success.
Why Low Ownership is Key in GPPs
Low ownership matters most in GPPs for a few key reasons:
- Differentiation: With thousands of lineups competing, you’re more likely to stand out with a unique combination of players if some of your selections are less popular. When these low-ownership players perform well, your lineup’s upside becomes much higher because fewer competitors benefit from their success.
- Explosive Upside: In GPP tournaments, it’s not enough to simply have a good lineup; you need one that maximizes upside. Low-ownership players, especially in high-scoring games, can offer that edge, as they’re often overlooked by the majority of DFS players.
- Banking on Variance: While chalk plays might provide a safer floor, low-ownership players come with higher variance. This variance, if managed properly, can lead to big performances that drastically increase your lineup’s ceiling.
How to Identify Low-Ownership Players
1. Studying Player Popularity Trends
One of the easiest ways to find low-ownership players is by analyzing player popularity trends from previous DFS slates. Sites like Rotogrinders and FantasyLabs provide ownership projections for major DFS platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Analyzing these trends helps you see which players the field is flocking to, and where opportunities for differentiation might lie.
For example, during weeks where a star quarterback has a favorable matchup, their ownership percentage might skyrocket. In these cases, you can often find value in pivoting to a similarly priced quarterback in a lower-profile game with a similar ceiling.
2. Leveraging Injuries and Late News
Injuries and late-breaking news are among the most valuable opportunities to find low-ownership plays. When a star player is ruled out close to lock time, DFS players tend to scramble to the immediate replacement, causing that player’s ownership to balloon. However, this also opens up low-ownership opportunities elsewhere.
Let’s say a high-profile running back is ruled out an hour before a game. The direct backup becomes chalk, but instead, you could pivot to a lesser-known pass-catching running back or even a wide receiver from the same team. Not only does this provide a contrarian play, but you can also benefit if game script favors a different offensive approach than the majority expects.
3. Using Game Theory
Game theory is another effective way to find low-ownership players. This approach considers the psychology of DFS players and anticipates which players or games the majority will flock to.
For instance, in a DFS slate where the majority of players are targeting a high-total game (often called “chalk games”), you can find contrarian plays in less popular matchups. If you correctly predict that the less popular game ends up with higher scoring, your lineups will gain a significant advantage over those relying on the chalk game.
Additionally, stacking players from a less-popular game while fading the chalk entirely can be a viable strategy. While this introduces more risk, the potential payoff in GPPs is substantial if your contrarian game ends up outscoring the widely selected game.
4. Contrarian Picks in Chalky Games
Just because a game is chalky doesn’t mean you have to avoid it altogether. In fact, targeting contrarian plays within these games can be an excellent strategy. If a quarterback or star wide receiver is likely to be heavily owned, consider rostering secondary or tertiary players from the same team.
For example, in an NFL game with a popular quarterback, most players might pair him with his top wide receiver. However, opting for the less popular tight end or second wide receiver could pay off if they end up being the go-to option for that week.
Creating a Balanced Lineup
Balancing your lineup with a mix of chalk and low-ownership plays is a core element of a successful DFS GPP strategy. While having some low-ownership plays can increase your lineup’s upside, you don’t want to overdo it and rely solely on unpredictable players.
Start by identifying some chalk players with high floors who are crucial to your lineup’s foundation. Then, mix in two or three low-ownership players who have high upside. This approach strikes the right balance between safety and upside.
The Risks and Rewards of Low Ownership Plays
Risks:
- Higher Variance: Low-ownership players are usually low-owned for a reason. They might have a difficult matchup, be part of a less productive offense, or be coming off a poor performance.
- Lineup Volatility: The nature of GPP tournaments is unpredictable, and relying too heavily on low-ownership plays can result in lineups that underperform if your contrarian picks don’t hit.
Rewards:
- Massive Upside: If your low-ownership plays hit, they can drastically increase your lineup’s scoring potential.
- Unique Lineups: One of the best feelings in DFS is seeing your contrarian picks outperform chalk players, which can put you on top of the leaderboard.
Tools to Help You Identify Low-Ownership Gems
There are several tools that provide DFS ownership projections and player analysis. Utilizing these resources can help you find undervalued players.
- Draft Dashboard: A great tool for finding low-ownership plays, Draft Dashboard includes player projections, ownership data, and optimization features. The platform helps you build optimized GPP lineups with both chalk and low-owned picks. Try Draft Dashboard for better lineup optimization.
- FantasyLabs: This site offers detailed ownership projections and allows you to create optimized lineups based on low-ownership plays.
- Rotogrinders Lineup Builder: Similar to Draft Dashboard, Rotogrinders offers ownership percentages and helps you construct GPP lineups.
By using these tools, you can maximize your chances of identifying low-ownership gems while still constructing a competitive lineup.
Advanced GPP Strategies
While finding low-ownership players is a cornerstone of DFS GPP strategy, there are a few advanced strategies you can employ to further your chances of a top finish.
1. Stack and Leverage
Stacking refers to rostering multiple players from the same team or game. This strategy works well when you believe a game will be high scoring, allowing for multiple players to hit their ceilings. When you stack players in low-ownership games, you increase the leverage against the field.
For example, stacking a quarterback with two wide receivers from the same team creates a correlated lineup, where success for one player increases the chances of success for others in the stack.
2. Late-Swap Opportunities
Late-swapping refers to adjusting your lineup after games have already started. This strategy is crucial when you’re behind in a GPP tournament and need to take bigger risks to catch up. If your early chalk plays underperform, consider pivoting to low-ownership options in the later games to increase your upside and differentiate your lineup.
For instance, if your chalk running back in the early slate underperformed, you might switch to a low-ownership running back in the late game rather than a chalky one, giving you a chance to make up ground.
3. Understanding Game Flow
Understanding how a game is likely to play out is vital when selecting low-ownership plays. Game flow refers to the pace of the game, the potential for scoring, and the way teams are likely to attack each other. Low-scoring, slow-paced games are generally bad targets for low-ownership picks, as fewer opportunities are created for fantasy points.
Look for games where both teams play at a fast pace, have explosive offenses, or feature weak defenses. These environments are ripe for DFS scoring, and if you can find low-ownership players in such matchups, you’ll maximize your lineup’s upside.
Case Study: Winning GPP Lineup Example
Let’s take a look at an example of a winning GPP lineup that effectively used low-ownership strategy.
Lineup Breakdown:
- Quarterback: Low-ownership QB in a high-scoring game. Chose a less obvious player, avoiding the popular matchup.
- Running Back: Mixed a chalky RB with a low-ownership, high-upside option coming off an injury.
- Wide Receivers: Paired the QB with a less popular wide receiver, while also taking a flier on a secondary receiver from a high-total game.
- Tight End: Selected a mid-priced tight end that had low ownership due to recency bias.
- Defense: Opted for a low-ownership defense with a favorable matchup, helping to round out a well-balanced, unique lineup.
The final result was a lineup that finished in the top 1%, largely due to the success of the low-ownership players, which outperformed their projections. By making smart contrarian plays, this player avoided the common chalk pitfalls and created a path to a major payout.
Conclusion
Incorporating low-ownership plays in your DFS strategy for GPPs is a high-risk, high-reward approach. The key is finding balance—using a blend of chalk and low-ownership plays to create a lineup that can differentiate you from the field while maintaining a high upside.
By leveraging game theory, injuries, and tools like Draft Dashboard, you can consistently find low-ownership gems that elevate your DFS lineups. With practice and research, mastering this strategy can drastically improve your chances of hitting big in GPPs.
